SPORTS ADVISORS
TUESDAY, JANUARY 19
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Northwestern (13-4, 9-4 ATS) at (21) Ohio State (13-5, 9-9 ATS)
Northwestern hopes to capitalize on Saturday’s big upset win over Purdue when it pays a visit to Value City Arena for a Big Ten battle with Ohio State, which re-entered the Top 25 this week.
The Wildcats lost three of their first four conference games (2-2 ATS), including Wednesday’s 60-50 home loss to No. 13 Wisconsin as a three-point underdog. But on Saturday, they stunned sixth-ranked Purdue 72-64 as an eight-point home pup. Michael Thompson (20 points) led three players in double-digit scoring, with Luka Mirkovic contributing a double-double (16 points, 10 rebounds), and Northwestern had a big 31-20 rebounding edge and held the Boilermakers to 35 percent shooting (5-for-23 from three-point land).
Ohio State also upset Purdue last week, rallying from a 10-point late second-half deficit to win 70-66 as a nine-point road underdog. Then the Boilermakers came home Saturday and took out Wisconsin 60-51, cashing as a 5½-point home chalk. Ohio State is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games, including winning and covering its first two conference home contests. Thad Matta’s squad is 11-0 (7-4 ATS) at Value City Arena, outscoring visitors by an average of 28 ppg (82-54) and outshooting them 53.2 percent to 37.1 percent.
Ohio State has won 18 of the last 19 meetings in this rivalry overall and the Buckeyes have defeated the Wildcats 26 straight times in Columbus going back to February 1977. Northwestern’s lone recent win against Ohio State came last year, a 72-69 victory as a 1½-point home favorite, followed two weeks later by a 52-47 loss at Ohio State, but the Wildcats again cashed as a six-point road ‘dog. Northwestern is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 6-2 ATS in the last eight, going 3-1 ATS at Value City Arena.
Northwestern is on ATS runs of 8-2 overall, 5-0 on the road (all as an underdog), 6-2 as an underdog regardless of venue, 15-5-1 as a road pup of seven to 12½ points and 7-1 after a SU victory. The Buckeyes have failed to cash in seven of their last 10 overall and five of six after an outright win, but they’re also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 Tuesday contests and 7-2 ATS in their last nine when laying seven to 12½ points.
The Wildcats carry “under” trends of 10-4 after a victory, 7-3 after a spread-cover and 8-1 against winning teams, but the over is 15-7 in their last 22 Big Ten contests and 5-1 in their last six as a pup of seven to 12½ points. Ohio State is on “under” rolls of 5-0 at home, 5-0 as a favorite, 9-3 in Big Ten play and 5-0 after a victory, but the Buckeyes have topped the total in 10 of 14 on Tuesday.
Finally, eight of the last nine Northwestern-Ohio State clashes have stayed under the total, with the last four in Columbus falling short of the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(17) Clemson (15-3, 9-6 ATS) at (19) Georgia Tech (13-4, 8-4 ATS)
Two teams that knocked off defending-champion North Carolina last week get together at Alexander Memorial Coliseum, where Georgia Tech hosts the red-hot Tigers.
Clemson ripped North Carolina 83-64 as a five-point home favorite Wednesday, then went to North Carolina State on Saturday and jumped out to a 45-28 halftime lead but barely held off the Wolfpack 73-70, coming up short as a five-point chalk. The Tigers have won three in a row (2-1 ATS) and are 8-1 in their last nine contests (7-2 ATS).
The Yellow Jackets also built a huge first-half lead on Saturday, taking a 42-28 advantage into the locker room at North Carolina, and they too barely escaped with a 73-71 upset win as a 6½-point road underdog. Georgia Tech has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in its last five games, and the last two victories were monster upsets as they knocked off North Carolina and Duke (71-67 as a seven-point home pup).
These teams met three times last year, with Clemson winning the two regular-season contests (73-59 as a 13-point home favorite and 81-73 as a seven-point road chalk) and the Yellow Jackets getting revenge in the ACC Tournament with an 86-81 upset win as an 8½-point pup. Prior to the Tigers’ eight-point victory in Atlanta last February, the home team had won six straight in this rivalry (5-1 ATS). The winner has cashed in each of the last six meetings.
In addition to cashing in seven of its last nine outings overall, Clemson is on positive pointspread streaks of 9-1-1 as a road underdog of less than seven points, 5-0 on Tuesday, 6-2 versus winning teams and 5-2 after a SU victory. On the flip side, the Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven after a non-cover.
Georgia Tech is on ATS runs of 12-4 overall, 4-1 at home, 6-2 in ACC play, 10-4 versus winning teams, 9-4 after a SU victory, 6-2 after a spread-cover and 6-2 as a favorite, but the Jackets have failed to cash in eight of 11 as a home favorite and four straight on Tuesday.
The under is on stretches of 4-1 for the Tigers overall, 4-1 for the Tigers against winning teams, 4-1 for Georgia Tech at home and 4-1 for Georgia Tech in ACC action. Conversely, the over is on streaks of 11-4 for Clemson on the road, 11-3 for Clemson as an underdog, 10-2 for Clemson as a road pup and 5-0 for the Yellow Jackets following a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(20) Northern Iowa (16-1, 12-4 ATS) at Wichita State (16-3, 7-4-1 ATS)
Back in the Top 25 for the first time since 2006 and just the second time in school history, Northern Iowa puts a 15-game winning streak on the line when it visits the Shockers, who bring a perfect home record into this Missouri Valley Conference clash.
The Panthers won their 15th in a row in dominating fashion Saturday, pounding Indiana State 62-40 as a 13-point home favorite, holding the Sycamores to 27.3 percent shooting. Northern Iowa is third in the nation in scoring defense, yielding just 54.9 ppg, including 51 ppg in seven Missouri Valley contests. Four of those seven conference foes have failed to crack 50 points against the Panthers.
Wichita State’s five-game SU and ATS winning streak ended in heartbreaking fashion Saturday, as it fell 57-56 at Creighton, pushing as a one-point road ‘dog. The Shockers are 11-0 inside Koch Arena, having outscored their visitors by 19.2 ppg, and they’ve won 20 of 21 at home going back to last season.
The Panthers have won three straight and seven of the last eight against Wichita State, but the teams have split the cash in their last six meetings. Last year, the home team swept the season series, with Northern Iowa rolling 78-54 as a three-point home favorite followed by the Shockers’ 69-61 victory as a one-point home pup. The host has won the last three meetings (2-1 ATS) after the visitor had gone 6-1 SU and ATS in the previous seven clashes.
Also in this rivalry, the underdog is on a 10-2 ATS roll, the visitor is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 (with the Panthers cashing in five of their last six trips to Wichita), and the winner has covered in 24 of the last 25 head-to-head matchups.
Northern Iowa owns one of the best pointspread records in college basketball and is also on lengthy ATS runs of 28-10 overall, 15-3 on the road, 56-24 as an underdog, 46-20 as a road pup, 10-1 when catching less than seven points on the road, 20-7 in MVC contests and 20-6 versus winning teams.
The Shockers also sport a bevy of pointspread runs, including 5-0-1 overall (all in conference), 4-0 as a favorite, 6-2 when laying less than seven points and 5-0 after a SU defeat, but they have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 on Tuesday and five of their last seven against winning teams.
It’s been all “unders” lately for the Panthers, who are riding low-scoring runs of 4-0 overall (all in the MVC), 4-0 on the road, 36-15-1 as an underdog, 5-0 as a road pup, 12-2 after a SU win and 18-7-1 on Tuesday. The under is also 5-2 in Wichita State’s last seven overall and 7-2 in its last nine conference games. However, the last four matchups between these teams have gone over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHERN IOWA and UNDER
NBA
Toronto (21-20, 20-21 ATS) at Cleveland (31-11, 20-21-1 ATS)
Fresh off a five-game Western Conference road trip, LeBron James and the Cavaliers return home to Quicken Loans Arena looking to knock off the Raptors, who are gunning for a third straight victory.
Toronto crushed the Mavericks 110-88 as a one-point home underdog on Sunday, moving a game above .500. The Raptors are playing their best basketball of the season, having won 10 of their last 13 games (9-4 ATS), and they’re 4-2 SU and ATS on the highway during this stretch. Toronto has turned up the offense lately, tallying more than 100 points in six straight games, including 107 or more five times.
The SU winner has covered the spread in all but three of Toronto’s games this season, including the last eight in a row. Also, the winner is 21-1 ATS in its 22 road outings.
Cleveland was a modest 3-2 on its road trip, but just 1-3-1 ATS. The journey ended with Saturday’s 102-101 win at the Clippers, coming up way short as an 8½-point road favorite. Going back to Dec. 11, the Cavaliers have won 16 of 20 games SU, going 6-1 at home. However, they’re just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine overall (all as a favorite) and 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a host.
Toronto opened its season against the Cavaliers on Oct. 28 and pulled off a 101-91 upset as a seven-point home underdog, ending a five-game SU and ATS losing streak to Cleveland. Still, the Cavs have beaten the Raptors five straight times at Quicken Loans Arena (4-1 ATS). The SU winner has cashed in seven straight meetings and nine of the last 10, and the favorite has covered in four of the last five.
The Raptors’ ATS trends are all over the map, as they’ve cashed in five of seven overall, five of seven as a ‘dog, eight of 10 against the Central Division and four of five after getting one day off, but they’re also in pointspread slides of 1-6 on Tuesday, 9-25-1 as a road ‘dog of five to 10½ points and 23-48-2 against winning teams.
Cleveland is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games when playing after two days of rest and 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 when facing opponents with a winning record, but the Cavs are otherwise in pointspread slumps of 2-6-1 overall, 2-5 at home (all as a chalk), 2-6 as a favorite and 0-5-1 after a SU victory. Also, the ‘dog is 7-2-1 ATS in Cleveland’s last 10 contests.
Toronto sports “over” streaks 7-3 overall, 4-1 on the road (all as an underdog), 6-1 after a SU win, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 20-8 on Tuesday and 18-7-1 against Eastern Conference opponents. Conversely, the Cavs carry “under” trends of 11-4 on Tuesday, 8-3 against Eastern Conference squads, 5-1 versus Atlantic Division foes, 5-1 against winning teams and 8-3 when going on two days’ rest. Finally, the under is on a 21-8-1 roll in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO and UNDER
